When can forecasts improve the decision?
Each scenario has its own best vaccination date
NEXT STUDY
Possible influenza seasons
Weekly outpatient ILI
Vaccine protection
Aligned to each optimal vaccination date
Compare every
vaccination date
Timing regret
Burden avoidable by changing the dose date
Seasons
Aligned mean
Optimal dates
Weeks from the aligned mean peak
Pre-pandemic threshold
August baseline
From 5,000 paired draws
Later seasons
Optimal dates
Threshold dates
Calendar date
Median gap to optimum
Threshold
Benefit vs. optimum
Across all 5,000 pairs
1 · Start
2 · One scenario
3 · Sample scenarios
4 · Align seasons
5 · Test a threshold
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